Anticipatory scenarios of social polarization

Abstract: Rapidly increasing social polarization is threatening democracies around the world. Scholars from several disciplines are studying, assessing, and modeling polarization antecedents, processes, and consequences. Social systems are complex and shift in time, hindering attempts to trace causes and predict consequences of observed trends. However, what appears chaotic at one observation level may exhibit patterns at a higher observation level. We propose to use this property of complex systems and a dynamic 2-group network model to explore the growing polarization between groups of Democrats and Republicans in the US. We generate anticipatory scenarios of polarization trends and explore intervention strategies such as leadership and effects of external events that may alleviate or further exacerbate polarization.

Keywords: polarization, anticipatory scenarios, network model

Topic: POLI   |   Format: Extended Abstract