Autocratic recidivism: the role of civil society and Peer-to-Peer networks in successful democratic transitions

In recent years, particularly in the Middle East, we have observed scenario of what we call autocratic recidivism, wherein democratic movements had overthrown autocratic regimes resulting in a period of increased freedom, but were quickly replaced by the previous government or even a more autocratic regime. Here we present computational models of synchronization in social networks that explains autocratic recidivism. Synchronization of individual actions is necessary for the societies to be effective. We theorized that autocratic recidivism occurs when societal structures fail to provide societal synchronization what results in frustration, fear, and a readiness for stronger control—paving the way for a new autocracy. The results of our simulations illustrated that after the dismantling of autocratic regimes, the ability of the society to achieve sufficient synchronization for functioning of society depends on the strength peer-to-peer networks and institutions independent of the government.