Qatar's Mediation Edge: How Stability Commitments Produce Durable Peace

Abstract: While research on international mediation has typically emphasized mediator neutrality and hegemonic capacity as key determinants of success, it offers limited explanation for why non-hegemonic regional states (such as the UAE, Oman, and particularly Qatar) have outperformed great powers in Middle Eastern mediation efforts (Bercovitch & Schneider, 2000; Svensson, 2009). However, the literature lacks scholarship on how a mediator’s strategic orientation—specifically, prioritizing regional stability over ideological objectives—shapes successful mediation outcomes. Centering Qatar as a benchmark case of stability-oriented mediation, our project will employ a mixed-methods design combining cross-national analysis of the M-IND dataset with paired case studies and a qualitative review of official statements addressing mediation efforts from the Qatari and US governments respectively. Our findings will contribute to mediation literature by identifying both the structural correlates and the underlying mechanisms through which stability-oriented mediation produces more durable peace outcomes.

Keywords: mediation, Middle East, peace, Large Language Models