When Does Hope Drive Social Change? Empirical Insights and Their Policy Implications

Abstract: When and how does people’s hope for change drive social change? This question has gained urgency amidst the profound sociopolitical crises of the 21st century, including escalating intergroup conflicts, accelerating environmental degradation, and mounting threats to democracy. Our comprehensive synthesis of research on hope’s role in social change suggests that in most cases hope is highly associated with attitudinal and behavioral markers of social change, but that this association is stronger when 1) the levels of hope stay in the scope of possibility rather than probability, 2) hope does not function only as regulating mechanism, 3) negative emotions like fear and anger are also at play. 4) the hope appeal is especially strong, and 5) the target of hope (i.e., what people hope for) closely matches the expected outcomes. We also raise questions about the fit of existing conceptualisations of hope to social change research and offer the Bidimensional Model of Hope as a conceptual framework that we believe is better suited for exploring hope in social and political contexts. Finally, we explore implications for advocacy and policymaking, suggesting strategies to harness hope in advancing democracy, equality, and peace.

Keywords: hope, social change, conflict resulution, democratic backsliding