The Nuanced Relationship Between Perceptions of Power Asymmetry and Hope: Evidence from the Occupied Palestinian Territories and Israel

Abstract: This study investigates the interplay between perceptions of power asymmetry and hope for peace among Israelis and Palestinians engaged in the ongoing conflict. Hope, conceptualized as a bidimensional construct comprising wishes (aspirations for peace) and expectations (perceived likelihood of peace), serves as a critical psychological resource in asymmetrical conflicts. Drawing on representative samples of Palestinians from the Occupied Palestinian Territories (N=600) and Israelis from Israel proper (N=750), data were collected both prior to the war in March 2023 and during the war (expected: March 2025). The findings highlight the complex relationship between subjective power perceptions and expectations for peace. Among Palestinians, greater perceived power relative to Israelis correlates with heightened expectations for peace, reflecting aspirations for transformative change. Conversely, for Israelis, higher perceptions of dominance are associated with diminished expectations for reconciliation, emphasizing control over conflict resolution. Both groups initially assessed the power disparity as 7:3 in favor of Israel, but the conflict's escalation has likely shifted these perceptions, with Palestinians perceiving increased power and Israelis feeling less dominant. This research offers new insights into how power asymmetry shapes hope and visions of peace in violent conflicts. Implications for fostering de-escalation, justice, and sustainable peace are discussed.

Keywords: Asymmterical conflict, hope, power percpetions, Israel, Palestine