Strategic Surprises as Failures to Traverse Psychological Distances

Abstract: Strategic surprises are ubiquitous, diverse, and consequential. We introduce a novel organizing framework for strategic surprises that is applicable across domains, disciplines, and levels of analysis. Building on the Construal Level Theory (CLT) of psychological distance, we propose that inadequate engagement with psychological distances is at the core of strategic surprises. Decision makers who are tethered to the reality of the self, here and now tend to think very concretely. Failing to engage with counterfactual possibilities, others’ perspectives, and events that seem spatially and temporally distant increases the likelihood of strategic surprises. Decision makers who venture too far in their minds and think very abstractly about their environment are likely to experience strategic surprises when encountering concrete events in their immediate environment. We use this novel framework to explain and theoretically integrate multiple streams of research on strategic surprises in close relationships, law enforcement, organizations and markets, and international relations.

Keywords: psychological distance, construal level, expectancy violation, uncertainty, strategic thinking and choice.