Dynamic Motivation in Goal Pursuit

Abstract: How do near-failures and near-successes affect future motivation and performance? This paper investigates this question using a novel dataset of US high school track times. We find that boys who narrowly surpass a round number time in the 1600 meters race are less likely to improve their performance and less likely to persist (keep racing) that track season. This effect diminishes in the longer term, decreasing as runners get farther away from the event, and disappears by the following year. The effect cannot be explained by material incentives, changes in risk-taking, or shifting effort to other activities, suggesting it is likely a “psychological effect” on motivation.

Keywords: Motivation, Reference Dependence, Goals