Time to Buy: Insights into Economic Outcomes of European Football Transfers

Abstract: Football (General American: Soccer) transfers are a cornerstone of the sport’s economic and competitive landscape, with clubs spending billions annually to secure top talent. This paper investigates discrepancies between transfer fees and player market values using a novel metric, the Transfer Efficiency Ratio (TER). By analyzing over 9,000 transfers across Europe’s top five leagues over two decades, this study explores patterns and drivers of transfer inefficiency. The results highlight significant inflation in transfer fees, particularly in the last decade, and uncover disparities driven by factors such as player age, position, club strategy, and national market dynamics. Findings indicate that younger players and high-demand positions command significant premiums, while regulatory and financial constraints shape transfer behaviors across leagues. The study provides actionable insights for clubs, regulators, and analysts aiming to optimize transfer strategies and promote financial transparency in football.

Keywords: Football transfer negotiations, Transfer Efficiency Ratio, market inefficiencies, player valuation, football economics