Perspective-Taking Predicts Coalition Success In Low-Predictable Contexts But Not In High-Predictable Contexts

Authors:

Abstract: Coalition theories have assumed that players anticipate the allocation norms used by others. This anticipation subsequently shapes the final coalition outcomes, determining both which coalition form and how payoffs are allocated. As these assumptions have only been deduced from observed final coalition outcomes, the present research sought to empirically test them. Partially aligning with these assumptions, we hypothesized that both allocation norms and the ability to infer other’s allocation norms (known as perspective-taking) are relevant to predict final coalition outcomes. Nevertheless, we posited that these processes are not as stable as presumed by coalition theories. Specifically, we hypothesized that perspective-taking abilities would vary based on the predictability of allocation norms. We expected that perspective-taking abilities would be essential in less predictable contexts, where the inference of others' allocation norms becomes both more necessary and challenging. Conversely, that perspective-taking would be less relevant in contexts where allocation norms are more predictable. In a real-time and incentivized three-person coalition experiment that simulates political governance, participants (N = 851) were assigned either to a condition where allocation norms were more salient (High-Predictable condition) or less salient (Low-Predictable condition). As expected, we found that a higher disposition to engage in perspective-taking predicted greater inclusion in winning coalitions and higher final payoffs only in the Low-Predictable condition, whereas this association was not found in the High-Predictable condition. This research also delved into potential underlying mechanisms and discusses the broader implications of these findings in advancing more process-oriented theories of coalition formation.

Track: NEG

Keywords: perspective-taking, coalition formation, predictability, allocation norms