The Politics of Hope and The Politics of Skepticism: Power Predicts Expressions of Hope Among Leaders of Nations In Conflict

Nations mired in prolonged conflict develop and disseminate an Ethos of the Conflict, which is used to garner support in the international arena and gain leverage in the conflict. Two key beliefs of this Ethos commonly voiced to the international community by leaders of rival parties concern the threats posed to their nation and their nation's aspiration for peace. Current literature asserts that all parties in conflict express these beliefs. However, we suggest that the extent these beliefs are voiced depends on the relative power each party holds. More specifically, we hypothesize that because of inferior capabilities, low-power nations are likely to mention the threat posed to their security and their eagerness for peace more frequently than high-power nations. To test our hypothesis, we analyzed the entire corpus of speeches made by Israeli and Palestinian representatives speaking at the United Nations General Debate between 1998-2020. We found that although representatives from both parties spoke about the threat posed to their security and their eagerness for peace, both beliefs were voiced more frequently by speakers from the low-power party (in this case, Palestinians) than the high-power party (Israel). Implications for psychological research of nations in conflict are discussed.