Perceived effects of the Climatic Change on the Pastoralism of the Gujjar and Bakarwals and related Environmental Conflict in Kashmir Valley, India

Significant discussion has been focused on the possibility that climate change will displace large numbers of nomads from their nomadic way of life in the developing world, but few multivariate studies have addressed this issue. High Mountain areas in the arid environment are extremely sensitive indicators of sometimes only slight changes of precipitation and temperatures. This holds true especially for the so far under-researched mountain regions of Kashmir in the Himalayas. The paper observes that the situation has been exacerbated by the phenomenon of climate change, whose dynamics tend to have been aggravating natural resource conflicts across the world. The study examined perceived effects of climate change on grazing land, livestock performance and examined the coping strategies of the transhumants to climate change. Multistage sampling technique was used to select 120 respondents for the study. Data were analysed using percentages, frequencies, tables and Chi square statistical tools. The result of the study showed that 37.5% of the respondents were between the ages of 51-60 years with an average age of 49.8 years. The results revealed that 67.5% of the pastoralists strongly agreed that the pattern of rainfall in recent time affects pasture availability. Consequently 47.5% and 52.5% of them reported a decrease in milk production and increase in livestock’s mortality rate respectively due to the effect of climate change. A significance relationship was established between factors of climate change and milk production of the herd (calculated x2 = 52.00, tabulated x2=7.8147. p≤0.05). It is therefore recommended that the pastoralists be trained in forage conservation techniques. They should also be encouraged to pool their resources to enjoy economics of scale by the extension workers. Grazing reserves should be developed by the government to fast track the disposition of the pastoralists to sedentary life.